FX lower as dollar firms, forint underperforms

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BUDAPEST — Most central European

currencies eased on Thursday as the dollar firmed to a

three-week high, with the Hungarian forint leading losses in the

region as it remained pressured by soaring gas prices.

The dollar firmed after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s

July meeting, published on Wednesday, pointed to U.S. interest

rates staying higher for longer to bring down inflation.

The U.S. currency often dictate sentiment in emerging

markets, even though central European economies do most of their

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trade with the euro zone.

The Czech crown slid 0.26% to 24.618 per euro,

while the Polish zloty was 0.35% lower and trading at

4.7230 versus the common currency.

The Hungarian forint eased 0.55% to trade at 406

to the euro, giving up some of its gains from the previous

session.

“The forint is still sensitive to changes in gas prices as

higher gas prices can further worsen the current account deficit

and growth prospects,” Gergely Suppan, senior analyst at

Takarekbank wrote in a note.

On Thursday the National Bank of Hungary left its one-week

deposit rate unchanged at 10.75% at a weekly tender, as

expected. Last month, the bank raised its base rate by 100 basis

points to 10.75% and it flagged more rate hikes ahead due to

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rising inflation.

“Some investors expected a rate hike due to the forint’s

weakness but much higher rates would hinder GDP growth,” an FX

trader in Budapest said.

The bank’s next monthly policy meeting is due on Aug. 30.

Data showed on Wednesday the economies of Hungary and

Romania both expanded at a faster-than-expected pace in the

second quarter, while the Polish economy grew below forecasts.

However, despite some positive second-quarter GDP figures,

signs of a slowdown are clearly visible across the region.

“The data are likely to make the respective central banks

more dovish,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “We forecast the CE3

currencies to weaken considerably by the end of 2022.”

CEE SNAPSH AT

MARKETS OT 1028

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CET

CURREN

CIES

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

bid close change in

2022

EURCZK Czech 0 0 %

EURHUF Hungary 00 00

EURPLN Polish

EURRON Romania % %

EURHRK Croatia %

EURRSD Serbian 00 50 % %

Note: calculated from 1800

daily CET

change

Latest Previo Daily Change

us

close change in

2022

.PX Prague 1238.3 1238.7 -0.03%

4 700

.BUX Budapes 43046. 42980. +0.15 -15.13

t 19 64 % %

.WIG20 Warsaw <.wig20> 3 3 % %

.BETI Buchare 12665. 12583. +0.65 -3.03%

st 58 24 %

.SBITO Ljublja <.sbito p na> 0 8 %

.CRBEX Zagreb <.crbex> 4 6 %

.BELEX Belgrad <.belex e> % %

.SOFIX Sofia <.sofix>

Yield Yield Spread Daily

(bid) change vs change

Bund in

Czech spread

Republi

c

CZ2YT= ps

CZ5YT= ps

CZ10YT ps

Poland

PL2YT= ps

PL5YT= ps

PL10YT ps

FORWARD

3×6 6×9 9×12 3M

interb

ank

Czech

Hungary

Poland

Note: are for ask

FRA prices

quotes

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(Editing by Mark Potter)