FORT LAUDERDALE, FL – While the red wave many expected in the midterm elections was more like a pink drizzle, the inroads Republicans made with Hispanic voters cannot be understated and reveal a historic trend that will upend American politics. The GOP was able to cut the Democrats’ margin with Hispanic voters in half, to just D+21 – the best midterm performance for Republicans EVER.
A memo from Giancarlo Sopo, the founder of Visto Media and one of the most respected analysts in the Republican Party, showcases just how important this increase is for Republicans, focusing on key battleground states like Arizona, Florida, and Georgia, where the shift among Hispanics from Democrat to Republican is most pronounced; all three states are crucial to any possibility of Republicans garnering 270 Electoral Votes in the next presidential election.
In Florida, Hispanics were instrumental in the landslide victories of both Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio. They secured 58% and 56% of the Hispanic vote respectively. Among Cubans, a historically strong Republican voting block, DeSantis and Rubio performed even better, winning a staggering 69% and 67% of the vote, but Republicans also posted substantial gains among Venezuelan and Colombian Americans. But perhaps the biggest surprise was their growing support among Puerto Ricans, a traditionally heavily Democrat constituency with DeSantis increasing his support by over 20 points compared to when he was first elected in 2018.
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Republicans also benefited from more skillful use of paid Spanish-language media. In his 2020 re-election campaign, President Trump had “Trump-Pence” billboards from Key West all the way to Jacksonville—but spent nothing whatsoever on all-important Spanish-language radio and cable in South and Central Florida. DeSantis and Rubio spent heavily on these important communications. Given that Rubio was outspent in the Senate race almost 2-1, this strategic communications decision paid strong dividends.
Arizona was another state where Hispanics showed up for Republicans in massive numbers compared to previous elections. Kari Lake’s 47% share of the state’s Hispanic vote is a 10-point improvement over President Trump’s 37% share in 2020. Considering that her campaign was based entirely on Trump’s agenda, it is further proof that the America First message is resonating with Hispanic voters. Moderate Martha McSally was only able to scrape 30% among Hispanics in 2018 after all.
In Georgia, Gov. Brian Kemp made major in-roads with Hispanics. While Stacey Abrams won 55% of the Hispanic vote to Kemp’s 43%, it is a significant improvement for Kemp compared to 2018, when Abrams won with a 25-point lead with Hispanics.
This increase in support from Hispanics didn’t come to be due to a major shift in Republican messaging. We didn’t see DeSantis or Lake screaming for Amnesty like some know-nothing Republican consultants like Karl Rove have advocated Republicans do in the past. They consistently advocated for border security, which legal immigrants strongly support.
Hispanic voters certainly aren’t “anti-immigration,” for obvious reasons. But no demographic group in America today sees the problems caused by the wide-open Southern border than Hispanics. While the mainstream media screams from the rooftops that there isn’t a crime problem on the border, the Hispanic Americans who live there see it firsthand. They also experience the economic strain being caused by the flood of illegal immigrants more intensely than anybody.
In fact, extensive polling of Hispanic voters before the election show that economic opportunity, rising crime, and concern about gasoline prices, all surpassed immigration as the foremost issue among these voters. In other words, with a growingly more prosperous Hispanic middle class, these voters share the same concern as all voters. In open-ended questions, it was revealed that those voters concerned about “illegal immigration” were, in fact, concerned about the rising tide of crime and drug abuse that the influx at our Southern Border has created.
Texas Hispanics are clear proof of that. While Gov. Greg Abbott slightly under-performed with Hispanics compared to his 2018 race, Republicans won one of three congressional seats in the Rio Grande Valley, including flipping the historically blue 15th Congressional District, which is over 80% Hispanic, and has never gone red.
It is clear as day that Republicans are the pro-economic opportunity, pro-freedom, anti-crime pro-God, and pro-family party, and that it is those issues that caused the 2022 Republican surge among Hispanics. As Democrats continue moving full speed ahead with their woke, perverted, destructive, sacrilegious, progressive agenda, there is no better time for Republicans to present their counter-agenda.
It should be noted that Hispanic voters are overwhelmingly Catholic and generally have conservative and religious-based values. Notably, the only subset of Hispanic voters in which the GOP did not gain were younger Hispanic women who remain pro-abortion and were therefore moved by the Democrats post-Dobbs campaign messaging.
Sopo lays it out well in his memo: (Analyzing the GOP’S 2022 Midterm Performance with Hispanics)
“To build upon our gains with Hispanics in future elections, Republicans should double down on our successful outreach thus far and broaden our message to encompass issues that are not typically within our wheelhouse but are important to Hispanic voters. Florida Republicans have done this most effectively, and the national GOP should take note.”
– Giancarlo Sopo
If Republicans take that to heart, Democrats are in big trouble in future elections.