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Ukraine Latest: War’s Impact to Show in European Economic Data

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Europe is reporting a string of data Friday that will give a snapshot of the economic impact on the rest of the continent of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Analysts expect a small gain of 0.2% in gross domestic product from the 19-member euro area even as the risk of a Russian energy cut-off threatens to tip Europe into a recession.

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(Bloomberg) — Europe is reporting a string of data Friday that will give a snapshot of the economic impact on the rest of the continent of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Analysts expect a small gain of 0.2% in gross domestic product from the 19-member euro area even as the risk of a Russian energy cut-off threatens to tip Europe into a recession.

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The US State Department approved the sale of as much as $8.4 billion in weapons to Germany, including F-35 fighter planes and munitions, emphasizing Berlin’s role as “an important force for political and economic stability in Europe.”

(See RSAN on the Bloomberg Terminal for the Russian Sanctions Dashboard.)

Key Developments

  • France Resumes Growth as Europe Frets on Recession: GDP Update
  • Swiss Exports to Russia Surge in Race to Beat Trade Sanctions
  • Biden, Xi Plan In-Person Meeting as Taiwan Tensions Intensify
  • A New Bench of Traders Muscle In to Supply Russian Oil to India

On the Ground

Local authorities reported missile strikes in Kharkiv, while the city of Mykolaiv was shelled overnight. Russian forces also shelled parts of the Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and conducted shelling along the contact line in the Avdiyivka, Novopavlivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions, according to Ukraine’s general staff. It added that Russia is attempting offensives in the districts of Novoluhanske and Soledar, and that hostilities are ongoing.

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(All times CET)

France Records Return to Growth (8:45 a.m.)

France’s economy returned to growth with faster expansion than expected, putting it on a firmer footing as surging inflation and energy woes threaten recession in Europe.

Swiss Exports to Russia Surge (8:30 a.m.)

Swiss exports to Russia of turbojets, air pumps and other machinery surged in the past two months as manufacturers raced to fill any orders signed before sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine render some of the sales illegal.

Russia Sanctions Pain Easing: BI (8:15 a.m.) 

Bloomberg Intelligence finds in a new report that projections of a $50 billion loss in the Russian banking sector may be too high. Key datapoints used to track the impact of sanctions suggest that the response of Russian policymakers aimed at averting a banking crisis has been effective, with Russia’s control of gas flows to Europe the main lever to ease economic pain.

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It’s Getting Easier for India to Buy Russian Oil (8 a.m.)

India is set to get more channels to buy cheap Russian oil, with a new wave of smaller, international traders muscling into its vast market by offering barrels shunned by rivals after the invasion of Ukraine.

US Approves $8.4 Billion in Arms Sales to Germany (9:25 p.m.)

F-35 fighter planes built by Lockheed Martin Corp., the newest extended-range air-launched cruise missiles and dual laser-GPS-guided smart bombs are among $8.4 billion in American-built arms sought by Germany and approved by the US State Department.

Although the department’s announcement Thursday made no direct mention of the war in Ukraine, it said that “this proposed sale will support the foreign policy and national security of the United States by improving the security of a NATO ally that is an important force for political and economic stability in Europe.”

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